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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 30-C.Brown right guard to DEN 22 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto).

The Three Options

GO +3.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.62 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model