Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 63

Denver Broncos 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CIN 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to CIN 27 for 4 yards (41-D.Sanders; 34-J.Skinner). ** Injury Update: DEN-27-D.Mathis has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.68 EP
56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model