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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:07) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model