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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2024-12-30 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DET
65.7%
SF
34.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.155 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.409 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 29
–
SF 24
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DET

David Montgomery RB Out Knee
Kalif Raymond WR Out Foot
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Neck

SF

Aaron Banks G Out Knee
Robert Beal DE Out Ankle
Spencer Burford G Out Calf
Dre Greenlaw LB Out Calf
Ji'Ayir Brown S Questionable Ankle
Colton McKivitz T Questionable Knee
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Tatum Bethune LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 40
–
SF 34

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 TD SF (8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 14-R.Pearsall for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 03:47 TD DET (3:47) 9-Ja.Williams left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SF 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD SF (15:00) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SF 13
  • Q2 10:17 TD DET (10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to SF 41 for 1 yard. Lateral to 9-Ja.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: SF-53-D.Winters has returned to the game. DET 12 – SF 14
  • Q2 06:20 TD SF (6:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – SF 20
  • Q3 10:02 TD DET (10:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – SF 21
  • Q3 07:44 TD SF (7:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – SF 27
  • Q3 04:31 FG DET (4:31) 39-J.Bates 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 24 – SF 28
  • Q3 00:22 TD DET (:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – SF 28
  • Q4 10:34 FG DET (10:34) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 34 – SF 28
  • Q4 03:06 TD DET (3:06) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 40 – SF 28
  • Q4 00:50 TD SF (:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs scrambles right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 40 – SF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (9:38) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DET 3 for 2 yards (95-P.O'Connor).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta (0-R.Green).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

    (:07) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 60%

    (4:31) 39-J.Bates 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 58%

    (13:30) 4-J.Moody 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 45%

    (12:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta to SF 26 for 19 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%

    (10:34) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.