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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DET 3 for 2 yards (95-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO +4.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.12 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model