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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 39

Detroit Lions 21 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 39-J.Bates 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model