4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 4-J.Moody 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model