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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 24

Detroit Lions 31 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model