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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 6 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 83-K.Granson to NYG 2 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 8, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model