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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

IND
50.3%
NYG
49.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.193 vs Joe Flacco (IND) -0.041 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

IND

Anthony Richardson QB Questionable Back
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Toe
Julius Brents CB Questionable Knee
Jaylon Carlies LB Questionable Shoulder
E.J. Speed LB Questionable Knee
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Ankle

NYG

Raheem Layne S Out Knee
Micah McFadden LB Out Neck
John Michael Schmitz C Out Ankle
Greg Stroman CB Out Shoulder
Austin Schlottmann C Questionable Fibula
Armon Watts DT Questionable Shoulder
Malik Nabers WR Questionable Toe
Dee Williams WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 33
–
NYG 45

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:48 FG IND (3:48) 7-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – NYG 0
  • Q1 01:13 TD NYG (1:13) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NYG 6
  • Q2 11:41 TD NYG (11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NYG 13
  • Q2 09:29 FG IND (9:29) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 6 – NYG 14
  • Q2 06:02 TD NYG (6:02) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 17-W.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – NYG 20
  • Q2 00:23 TD IND (:23) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – NYG 21
  • Q3 15:00 TD NYG 7-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from IND 35 to NYG 0. 87-I.Smith-Marsette for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NYG 27
  • Q3 11:10 TD IND (11:10) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – NYG 28
  • Q4 10:57 TD IND (10:57) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – NYG 28
  • Q4 08:50 TD NYG (8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – NYG 34
  • Q4 06:43 TD IND (6:43) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYG-27-J.Pinnock has returned to the game. IND 32 – NYG 35
  • Q4 03:05 TD NYG (3:05) 2-D.Lock scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – NYG 41
  • Q4 02:24 FG NYG (2:24) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. IND 33 – NYG 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to IND 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (3:48) 7-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%

    (13:44) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (9:29) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 83-K.Granson to NYG 2 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to IND 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 6-A.Gould to IND 26 for 7 yards (45-T.Fox).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (4:41) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to NYG 23 for no gain (94-E.Chatman; 90-E.Garcia).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:18) 29-T.Tracy left end to NYG 42 for no gain (45-E.Speed; 40-J.Jones).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%

    (14:44) 8-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to IND 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:24) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.