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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Giants 28 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to IND 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 6-A.Gould to IND 26 for 7 yards (45-T.Fox).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model