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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 58

New York Giants 28 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:18) 29-T.Tracy left end to NYG 42 for no gain (45-E.Speed; 40-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model