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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 12

New York Giants 42 – Indianapolis Colts 33

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model