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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP