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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP