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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Wednesday 2024-12-25 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

KC
50.3%
PIT
49.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

KC

Chamarri Conner S Out Concussion
D.J. Humphries T Out Hamstring
Chris Jones DT Questionable Calf
Jawaan Taylor T Questionable Knee

PIT

Joey Porter CB Out Knee
Ben Skowronek WR Out Hip
Justin Fields QB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 29
–
PIT 10

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:23 TD KC (9:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-1-X.Worthy, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 04:05 TD KC (4:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 84-Ju.Watson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – PIT 0
  • Q2 10:35 TD PIT (10:35) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – PIT 6
  • Q3 12:24 FG KC (12:24) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 16 – PIT 7
  • Q3 05:49 FG PIT (5:49) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. KC 16 – PIT 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 22 – PIT 10
  • Q4 12:44 TD KC (12:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-97-Ca.Heyward was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 28 – PIT 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:30) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to KC 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at PIT 42 for 25 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 76%

    (11:25) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to PIT 29 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:45) 8-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to KC 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 81-N.Remigio to KC 22 for 7 yards (93-M.Robinson). FUMBLES (93-M.Robinson), touched at KC 24, recovered by KC-26-D.Bush at KC 21.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:48) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to PIT 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-C.Austin to PIT 28 for 14 yards (41-J.Winchester; 83-N.Gray).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (6:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (1:11) 8-C.Waitman punts 31 yards to KC 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for 2 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (12:24) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (5:49) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 20 at the 42
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 55%

    (10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-G.Pickens (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 44 yards to PIT 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-C.Austin to PIT 14 for no gain (21-J.Hicks; 41-J.Winchester).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:01) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to KC 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to PIT 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-50-S.Bozeman.