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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 8-C.Waitman punts 31 yards to KC 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for 2 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model