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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to PIT 29 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.63 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -2.12 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model