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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model