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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 29

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-G.Pickens (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.42 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP