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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 29

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to KC 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP