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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-A.Erickson to NE 37 for 15 yards (47-J.Harris; 28-H.Haskins).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.95 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP