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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
Saturday 2024-12-28 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow Spread -6.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

LAC
51.6%
NE
48.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): -0.016 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
NE 22
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LAC

Gus Edwards RB Out Ankle
Denzel Perryman LB Out Groin
Trey Pipkins T Out Hip
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Illness
Will Dissly TE Questionable Shoulder
J.K. Dobbins RB Questionable Knee
Elijah Molden CB Questionable Knee

NE

Marcus Jones CB Out Hip
Ben Brown C Questionable Concussion
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Curtis Jacobs LB Questionable Concussion
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Knee
Titus Leo LB Questionable Ankle
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Hamstring
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee
Jahlani Tavai LB Questionable Groin
Caedan Wallace T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 40
–
NE 7

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:27 TD LAC (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 12-D.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-Y.Ngakoue]. LAC 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 10:18 FG LAC (10:18) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – NE 0
  • Q2 03:00 TD LAC (3:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – NE 0
  • Q2 01:31 TD NE (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 3-D.Douglas for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-48-B.Dupree, Defensive Offside, declined. NE 10-Maye 8th straight game with a TD pass, new franchise rookie record (Plunkett 7, 1971). LAC 17 – NE 6
  • Q2 00:06 FG LAC (:06) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – NE 7
  • Q3 07:43 TD LAC (7:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – NE 7
  • Q3 05:47 FG LAC (5:47) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 30 – NE 7
  • Q4 12:01 TD LAC (12:01) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 36 – NE 7
  • Q4 03:51 FG LAC (3:51) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 40 – NE 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:49) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-A.Erickson to NE 37 for 15 yards (47-J.Harris; 28-H.Haskins).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to LAC 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 53%

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:09) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to LAC 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-97-T.Leo.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (10:18) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 48%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 84-S.Smartt to NE 35 for 9 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 62 yards to LAC 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on LAC-40-K.Williamson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 23 for -15 yards (3-D.James).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

    (5:47) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 37 for -6 yards (3-D.James).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:06) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to LAC 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis to LAC 21 for 13 yards (24-D.Pettus).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:25) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to NE 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to NE 26 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (3:51) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.