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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to LAC 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model