Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 72

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 37

(11:06) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to LAC 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis to LAC 21 for 13 yards (24-D.Pettus).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.06 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model