4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 37 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to NE 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model