Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 79

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 37

(5:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to NE 26 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.94 EP
54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model