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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 37 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP