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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 68

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to LAC 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-97-T.Leo.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model