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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 43-M.Hayball punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model