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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

LV
53.0%
NO
47.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Jake Haener (NO) -0.443 vs Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.013 EPA/dropback
  • LV offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
NO 20
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LV

Jordan Meredith G Out Ankle

NO

Derek Carr QB Out Left Hand
Alvin Kamara RB Out Groin
Erik McCoy C Out Elbow
Lucas Patrick G Out Knee
Rico Payton CB Questionable Illness
Chris Olave WR Questionable Head
Nathan Shepherd DT Questionable Eye
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 25
–
NO 10

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:53 FG LV (5:53) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD NO (15:00) 18-S.Rattler pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 10:23 FG LV (10:23) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 01:01 TD LV (1:01) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NO-20-P.Werner has returned to the game. LV 12 – NO 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG NO (:03) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. LV 13 – NO 10
  • Q3 08:03 FG LV (8:03) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – NO 10
  • Q4 14:16 FG LV (14:16) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 19 – NO 10
  • Q4 08:27 TD LV (8:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 25 – NO 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (5:53) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 54%

    (3:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to LV 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:57) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to NO 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-D.Pettis to 50 for 21 yards (53-A.Gainer; 20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (10:23) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%

    (4:32) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to LV 5, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-98-P.Turner.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:00) 43-M.Hayball punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 70%

    (8:03) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:09) 43-M.Hayball punts 38 yards to LV 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-98-P.Turner.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:06) 6-A.Cole punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:01) 43-M.Hayball punts 55 yards to LV 35, Center-49-Z.Wood. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 39 for 4 yards (36-R.Payton; 48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (14:16) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:04) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler scrambles left end to NO 46 for 8 yards (44-K.Chaisson).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:43) 43-M.Hayball punts 55 yards to LV 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Tucker to LV 33 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 41%

    (5:16) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to NO 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 18 at the 98 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:35) 43-M.Hayball punts 64 yards to LV 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Tucker to NO 49 for 17 yards (45-N.Sewell). NO-53-J.Ford was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 54%

    (3:10) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.