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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP