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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 43-M.Hayball punts 38 yards to LV 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-98-P.Turner.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP