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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP