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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 25 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to NO 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model