4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 25 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.44 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP