4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to LV 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model