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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:57) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to NO 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-D.Pettis to 50 for 21 yards (53-A.Gainer; 20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth -0.43 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -3.22 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 43, worth -3.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP