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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model