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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 16:05 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 32.5

Win Probability

MIA
52.8%
CLE
47.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Jameis Winston (CLE) -0.037 vs Tyler Huntley (MIA) -0.138 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Tyler Huntley in place of Tua Tagovailoa)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23
–
CLE 21
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIA

Kendall Fuller CB Out Knee
Anthony Walker LB Out Knee
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Questionable Knee
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Wrist
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Knee
Tua Tagovailoa QB Questionable Hip
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Knee

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Knee
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo DE Out Knee
Cedric Tillman WR Out Concussion
Jameis Winston QB Questionable Right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
CLE 3

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:50 FG MIA (5:50) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 13:29 FG CLE (13:29) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. MIA 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG MIA (:01) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 6 – CLE 3
  • Q3 11:12 TD MIA (11:12) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley scrambles right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – CLE 3
  • Q4 03:43 TD MIA (3:43) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – CLE 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:58) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CLE 19, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIA 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-M.Washington to MIA 38 for 4 yards (31-M.Ford).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 61%

    (5:50) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (13:29) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%

    (11:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to MIA 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-T.Hill to MIA 30 for 18 yards (37-Da.Bell).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 18%

    (8:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-11-J.Proche, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 11-J.Proche to CLE 42 for 9 yards (41-C.Tindall).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 55%

    (:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to MIA 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CLE 30, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 61%

    (3:22) 28-D.Achane right end to CLE 38 for -2 yards (30-D.Bush).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (14:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to 50, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (11:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to MIA 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-M.Washington to MIA 31 for 23 yards (37-Da.Bell; 39-K.Hudson). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to CLE 2, Center-47-J.McQuaide, downed by MIA-33-S.Neal.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 81-M.Woods pushed ob at CLE 21 for 3 yards (20-J.Brooks).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore.