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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-11-J.Proche, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -2.05 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model