Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

(2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 11-J.Proche to CLE 42 for 9 yards (41-C.Tindall).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model