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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CLE 30, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model