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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 36
Miami Dolphins 13 – Cleveland Browns 3
What Actually Happened
(3:22) 28-D.Achane right end to CLE 38 for -2 yards (30-D.Bush).
The Three Options
GO
+1.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.40 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.16 EP
KICK
-0.33 EP
- 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
