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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to MIA 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-M.Washington to MIA 31 for 23 yards (37-Da.Bell; 39-K.Hudson). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.88 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model