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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to CHI 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-88-A.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model