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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Thursday 2024-12-26 · 20:15 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SEA
50.9%
CHI
49.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.161 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Caleb Williams (CHI): -0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SEA

Brady Russell TE Out Foot
Kenneth Walker RB Out Ankle
K'Von Wallace S Out Ankle

CHI

Elijah Hicks S Out Ankle
Travis Homer RB Out Hamstring
Teven Jenkins T Out Calf
Tarvarius Moore S Out Knee
Gervon Dexter DT Questionable Knee
Doug Kramer C Questionable Shoulder
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 6
–
CHI 3

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:03 FG SEA (9:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 02:37 FG CHI (2:37) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. SEA 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:26 FG SEA (:26) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – CHI 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (9:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to SEA 17, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at SEA 17 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to CHI 22, Center-41-C.Stoll. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 29 for 7 yards (25-K.McIntosh).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to SEA 5, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-J.Darden to SEA 5 for no gain (10-T.Scott).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (2:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to CHI 31, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:49) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to CHI 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-88-A.Barner.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%

    (2:37) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%

    (:26) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:54) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CHI 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-42-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:44) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-10-T.Scott.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to CHI 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 38 for 14 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to SEA 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CHI 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen (8-C.Bryant) [8-C.Bryant] at SEA 22. 27-T.Woolen pushed ob at SEA 29 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).