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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 24

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model