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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.13 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model