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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 69

Chicago Bears 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP